Not weaker, not better

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The global economy is still in a difficult situation at the beginning of autumn in the northern hemisphere. In the Eurozone, and especially in Germany, the economic situation remains weak and the recessionary tendencies persist. At least there is a slight ray of hope in the form of rising expectations. However, it would be premature to declare a turnaround. If we look further into other regions, we see a largely unchanged picture. Cooling tendencies dominate. A positive trend reversal is nowhere to be found here either.

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sentix Survey results (40-2023)

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Persistent pessimism, sustained confidence

Investor sentiment shows neutral or mostly even negative values across all asset classes. Only USD/JPY shows optimism. Otherwise, equities are struggling with persistent pessimism, as are bonds and commodities.
Paradox: In the medium term, investors may well warm to almost all assets. The investment behavior basically suggests that one should take more risk at the moment.

Further results

  • Bonds: Instis are especially confident
  • FX: Special position USD/JPY
  • sentix economic index: Monday, 09th Oct. 2023 at 10:30 CEST

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sentix Survey results (39-2023)

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Fundamental confidence surprisingly improves

From a stock bull's perspective, the past week has not felt good. Nevertheless, investors' underlying confidence has improved! This is bullish news for investors at the start of the usually promising fourth quarter of the year. We also measure significant changes in fundamental confidence on USD-JPY and crude oil.

Further results

  • USD-JPY: Positioning and fundamental confidence separate
  • Crude oil: Strategic bias falls again

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sentix Survey results (38-2023)

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Costant fear attacks

The price weakness of the past week leads to a renewed fear attack among investors. This is a typical weakness after the September futures decline. The number of bulls has shrunk significantly. Since fundamental confidence has held up so far, the renewed fear creates more opportunities than risks. There are rare sentix indicator signals in US bonds and in USD-JPY.

Further results

  • Bonds: Rare OCI signal in US bonds
  • FX: Rare TD signal in USD-JPY
  • sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

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sentix Survey results (37-2023)

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How much is the seasonal headwind disturbing?

Sentiment toward equities is improving. But this does not lead to a clear increase in the number of bulls. Rather, the share of neutral investors is rising in the short term, indicating irritation. Indeed, much of the optimism rests on hopes for a typically good fourth quarter. But this is often preceded by a weak second half of September. The data also show that investors are increasingly enthusiastic about growth stocks and IPOs.

Further resuls

  • Bonds: Bias continues to improve steadily
  • Precious metals: Bias suggests further buying
  • sentix styles - Investor preferences & behavior

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